Novavax shares are trading at two-year lows amid slowly growing use of the Covid vaccine, called Nuvaxovid, in the US
The Food and Drug Administration signed off on Nuvaxovid in July, six months later Novavax (NVAX) asked the agency to authorize the emergency use regime. Since then, only 6,278 people have received two doses of the vaccineaccording to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
In total, Novavax has delivered approximately 31.2 million doses of the vaccine in the US
CFRA Research analyst Stuart Glickman previously noted supply and timing challenges for Novavax. An important component of the vaccine comes from the bark of a tree that is common in Chile. The harvesting of these trees is strictly regulated.
“Novavax partially attributed the second-quarter revenue miss to scheduling issues, with sales fading in the third quarter,” he said in a note to clients in August. “But we think the company is in the penalty box and we would now characterize the investment case as a ‘show me’ story.”
Novavax Stock: Limited launch
Novavax was already at a disadvantage during Nuvaxovid’s US launch. Pfizer (PFE) and Modern (MRNA) won their first approvals in December 2020. Novavax’s stock climbed along with the duo through February 2021.
The CDC also directs a limited release of Nuvaxovid in the US. Not all providers received the regimen, and pre-ordering was not available for the vaccine. US doses were to be “directed to providers with expected demand among unvaccinated patients.”
In the US, this includes about 10% of adults.
The rate of use of Nuvaxovid will certainly be higher abroad. The shot won its first permits last November in Indonesia and the Philippines.
Light sales expectations
Still, CFRA’s Glickman doesn’t have high hopes for sales in 2022-23 — and that’s reflected in the performance of Novavax shares. After missing expectations for the second quarter, stocks generally trended lower, according to MarketSmith.com.
Glickman now expects $1.8 billion in sales in 2022 and $2.2 billion the following year. After its miss, Novavax cut its full-year guidance to $2 billion to $2.3 billion in sales.
In the morning he trades on today’s stock marketNovavax shares fell 8.9% to close at 23.60.
Company representatives did not immediately return a request for comment.
Follow Alison Gatlin on Twitter at @IBD_AGatlin.
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