– by a New Deal Democrat
After stabilizing in the $87-$94 range for just over a month, oil prices have fallen further over the past few days. As of this morning, they were in the $82/barrel range. The YTD chart via CNBC below shows that they have now completely reversed the escalation of the invasion into Ukraine that began in February (perhaps related to last week’s Ukraine counter-offensive?):
Gas prices follow oil prices usually with a lag of several weeks. As shown above, oil prices peaked in early June and gas prices in the middle of the month.
So here’s a 9-month graph, via GasBuddy, of gas prices:
The declines in gas prices have slowed for several weeks after those of oil. As of this morning, gas prices across the country averaged $3.72.
Just before the invasion of Ukraine, gas prices averaged around $3.50/gallon. If oil prices hold in this new, lower range, we could see gas prices again at this level in a few weeks.
That, in turn, would support more consumer spending, a jump in consumer confidence and Biden’s approval rating — and another good month on the CPI front.