Initial claims end the year still positive

– by a New Deal Democrat

This morning we got the last economic news of the year as initial claims for the week rose 9,000 to 225,000. The 4-week moving average fell 250 to 221,000. Continuing claims rose 41,000 to 1,710,000.10 -monthly peak:

The weekly number was actually 14,000 higher than a year ago, but not significantly. The 4-week average and ongoing claims remain below year-end levels:

So this series ends the year which is still positive.

At the same time, year-over-year comparisons become more challenging early next week. To reiterate, I will warn of a “yellow flag” if the 4-week moving average turns higher on a yearly basis. I won’t raise a recessionary “red flag” unless and until the average rises 10% or more on a year-over-year basis.

I plan to post my final “Covoravirus Dashboard” for the year tomorrow and my normal “weekly indicators” over the weekend before we start the new year.

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