Jobless claims continue streak of good news

– by a New Deal Democrat

If yesterday’s economic data was bad, this morning’s was significantly better (I’ll post about housing later).

Initial jobless claims fell by 15,000 to 195,000, their best number in almost 8 months. The 4-week moving average fell 6,500 to 206,000, the best number in more than 6 months. Continuing claims, a week earlier, rose 17,000 to 1.647 million, still lower than their reading in December:

These continue to be simply excellent numbers.

In addition, both initial claims and their 4-week average improved and are lower year-on-year, although ongoing claims are only slightly higher:

Unless and until the 4-week average of initial claims is 10%+ higher y-o-y and stays there, there is no signal of a recession.

That’s great news.

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