– by a New Deal Democrat
Initial jobless claims fell -6,000 this week to 222,000. The 4-week average rose 2,000 to 221,000. More interestingly, ongoing claims a week ago rose 13,000 to 1,507,000, the most the high number of over 7 months:
By historical standards, it’s still true that almost no one is laid off (outside of tech). But the current numbers are proof that the job market, while still red-hot, isn’t as red-hot as it was earlier this year. In fact, if jobless claims remain at current levels, they will be negative year-over-year by the end of January and up more than 20% from their lows, which would reverse this indicator – which was one of the most positive throughout this year – negative.