Nov 8 coronavirus scoreboard: New alphabet soup of variants fails to generate new wave (so far)

– by a New Deal Democrat

´╗┐Biobot hasn’t updated since late last week, showing COVID particles at or near 6-month lows both nationwide:

and in all 4 census tracts:

As expected, the CDC’s variant update last Friday showed that BA.5 was down to 40% of all cases, with the alphabet soup of new variants derived from BA.2 and BA.5 making up the remaining 60%:

Regionally (not shown), BA.5 is particularly low, only 25% of all cases in New York and New Jersey.

Confirmed cases remain higher than their recent low of 34,300 set 2.5 weeks ago at 39,600, but the trend is steady rather than rising:

The same goes for hospitalizations, at 24,800, nearly 2,000 above recent lows:

Deaths continue to decline by 316 near a 6-month low and only above about 4 months during the entire pandemic:

A regional breakdown of confirmed cases shows an increase only in the Midwest, while the Northeast has the highest absolute level per capita. Cases are generally equal in most states and Puerto Rico.

Cases are declining in the 6 New England states (shown below plus New York and New Jersey):

and also the state of Washington.

Cases are increasing in CO, NM, IN, KY, LA, MD, MO, NE, NV, OH, SD, UT and WV:

Note, however, that the increases are relatively small with the exception of NM, CO, and KY.

It looks like the winter wave is slowly starting, but it’s encouraging that it remains so low, with the alphabet soup of new variants making up the majority of cases. My suspicion is that cases will increase during the holidays, with all gatherings indoors; but the wave will look more like the recent BA.2.12.1 and BA.5 waves than either of the last two huge winter waves.

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