– by a New Deal Democrat
The JOLTS report for November showed both continued slowing trends in some series, but overall a picture of a labor market that remains “hot.”
Here’s a chart I made a month ago of job openings, hires, departures, and complete separations:
Here’s an update for the past 2 years on all four series:
Three of the four series — openings, hiring and total firing — show a pattern of continued slowdown since the start of last spring, though only hiring hit a new 12+ month low, this report said. Only the declines seem consistent with a stabilizing market – although they can also be read as slowing.
At the same time, both openings and hiring continue at levels above any month preceding the pandemic.
In the eight years before the pandemic, layoffs and layoffs averaged 1,800 +/-100 per month, with a low of 1,500. Since the end of the pandemic lockdown, they have averaged 1,400 +/-100. At 1350 in November they continue in exactly this range:
Taken as a whole, the JOLTS data for November suggest a hot labor market; just not as hot as before.