The positive trend in unemployment claims continues

– by a New Deal Democrat

For another week, initial jobless claims continued their recent downward trend.

Initial claims fell -16,000 to 193,000, a 5-month low. The 4-week average also fell -8,750 to a new 4-month low of 207,000. Continuing claims, lagging somewhat, fell -29,000 to a 2.5-month low of 1,347,000:

The downward trend of the last 2 months is almost certainly a positive side effect of lower gas prices. According to GasBuddy, gas prices have increased over the past 10 days. If gas prices stabilize, I expect jobless claims to as well.

But this is good news and very much contradicts the idea that the US is currently in recession.

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