Dow Jones futures will open Sunday evening, along with S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq futures. The stock market rally held support levels last week. Now, could the S&P 500 move above its 200-day moving average in the coming days and weeks? An apple (AAPL) can be key.
Apple shares held key levels and rose modestly even as the overall market pulled back. Like the S&P 500, the iPhone tech titan is returning to its 200-day line. A decisive move above this level could offer a buying opportunity. But another rejection could offer another chance to short AAPL stock.
Meanwhile, fellow Dow Jones components Boeing (B.A), JPMorgan Chase (JPM) and GS shares have quietly been in significant numbers over the past few weeks, contributing to the Dow’s outperformance in the current market rally. BA stock is technically right around a traditional buy point. Goldman Sachs (GS) is building a deep base, while JPM stock still has work to do.
Dow Jones futures today
Dow Jones futures open at 6 PM ET on Sunday, along with S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq 100 futures.
Stock Market Rally Analysis
Last week, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose less than 0.1% last week Exchange Trading. The S&P 500 index fell 0.7% and the Nasdaq composite fell 1.5%. The small-cap Russell 2000 gave up 1.75%.
On Tuesday, November 15, the S&P 500 briefly crossed 4,000, approaching the 200-day moving average. This level is particularly important as the benchmark index pulled back just 1 point from the 200-day line on August 16, triggering another bear market leg.
A decisive move above the 200-day line, which would also roughly coincide with the trend line of falling highs from the Jan. 4 record high, would be a strong signal that the uptrend is more than a bear market rally.
The S&P 500 clearing the 200-day line would also be a positive backdrop for the top stocks struggling near buy points amid a volatile market.
Meanwhile, the Russell 2000 fell back below its 200-day line last week, but is likely to retrace that level ahead of the S&P 500. The Dow Jones, supported by shares of Boeing, Goldman and JPM, is comfortably above the 200-day. But a clear of last week’s peak would send the Dow back to 34,000 and just below its August peak.
The Nasdaq, worried about aggressive growth, is 8.3% below its 200-day line. A break above last week’s highs would be a good first step. Also positive: The 21-day moving average just broke above the 50-day line on Friday.
Thanksgiving week isn’t necessarily a great time for a big market move. Markets will be closed on Thanksgiving Day with a half-day session on Friday. Volume is likely to be low throughout the week. Next week ends with a bang. On Dec. 1, investors will receive PCE inflation data for September, along with the ISM manufacturing index for October. The October jobs report is due on December 2. This news could have a big impact on Fed rate hike expectations, bond yields and stock prices.
So it wouldn’t be a surprise to see the major indexes trade in a range over the next week or so. There’s nothing wrong with a little consolidation for the major indexes and leading stocks.
Apple shares rose 1.1% last week to 151.29, after jumping 8.2% the previous week. The stock held its 50-day moving average, with the 21-day line set to surpass the 50-day. AAPL shares are only modestly below the 200-day line. The Dow giant flirted with its 200 day on Oct. 28 after earnings. But it turned out to be a great opportunity to short, with shares falling for several days to their worst close since mid-June.
A decisive move above the 200-day line, perhaps clearing the October 28 high of 157.50, would suggest an early entry into a lower base starting on August 17. But if Apple stock turns down from that zone, it could provide another shorting opportunity.
Apple’s success or failure at the 200-day line could be key to the S&P 500’s own performance, and vice versa.
BA shares fell 2% to 173.89, after rising 47% in five weeks. While the aerospace giant Dow Jones reversed lower earnings on Oct. 26, the stock rebounded, especially on upward cash flow guidance a few days later.
Technically, Boeing shares are just below the 173.95 cup-base point of purchase. But shares are 9.5% above the 200-day line and 19.5% above the 50-day. A break around current levels could create a safer buying opportunity.
Boeing is expected to turn a profit in 2023, ending four years of losses.
GS shares fell 1.55% to 379.20 last week. On the daily chart, shares are expanding from 358.72 base cup a buy point within a much larger consolidation. On a weekly chart, shares of Goldman have a 389.68 full-year buy point cup-with-handle base, acc MarketSmith analysis. But after a 28% gain during a four-week winning streak, that’s an awfully small handle. A longer, deeper handle would be helpful and let the 50-day line close the gap.
The line of relative strength is at a four-year high, reflecting the outperformance of Goldman stock relative to the S&P 500. The RS line is the blue line in the charts provided.
JPMorgan shares fell 1.1% to 133.84 last week. That’s after a 29.5% advance in six weeks. The stock is above its 50-day and 200-day lines, but it has work to do. JPM stock could build the right side of a long, deep consolidation, or it could create a bottom base.
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