3 graphic signs of financial stress
– by a New Deal Democrat The subject of my weekly “high-frequency” update on economic indicators over the weekend was the sudden deterioration in some measures of financial stress. Tomorrow…
Now there’s only one significant manufacturing data point that isn’t flat or down — but it’s the one the NBER is counting on
– by a New Deal Democrat I’m increasingly of the opinion that right now the only two economic data series that matter are non-farm payrolls and the personal consumption expenditure…
February new home sales rise; probably bottomed out last July
– by a New Deal Democrat Most of what you’ve probably read elsewhere has focused on new home prices, which after finally falling -0.7% y/y in January, have recovered to…
no; no one has been fired yet
– by a New Deal Democrat Initial jobless claims fell -1,000 to 191,000 last week, while the more important 4-week moving average fell 250 to 196,250. Continuing claims, one week…
Update on 3 high-frequency indicators: no recession yet, but no shortage of yellow flags
Aside from the Fed’s interest rate decision this afternoon, it’s been a slow week for economic news. In general, the experts I read seem to settle on the consensus that…
February existing home sales confirm prices have eased, but bottoming out in sales and construction may have occurred
– by a New Deal Democrat There were only two notable takeaways from February’s existing home sales report: (1) like mortgage applications, permits and starts, existing home sales responded to…
Average and aggregate non-supervisory wages for February
– by a New Deal Democrat There’s no major economic news today, so let’s update a few income metrics important to the average working American household. Namely, since we now…
Industrial production ‘meh’ in February but down sharply from last summer; real manufacturing and trade sales are expected to decline in February
– by a New Deal Democrat Industrial production was unchanged for the month of February, while industrial production rose by +0.1%. But the bad news is that both have been…
Housing: good news and bad news
– by a New Deal Democrat This morning’s housing report contained both good and bad news. First, the good news. Both permits (gold in the chart below) and starts (blue)…
Jobless claims: no one (yet!) has been laid off
– by a New Deal Democrat Initial jobless claims fell -20,000 this week, back below 200,000 to 192,000. The 4-week average fell from -750 to 196,500. Continuing claims, delayed by…