[Note: I’ll post about personal income and spending, as well as new home sales, later.]
– by a New Deal Democrat
I don’t usually pay much attention to the monthly durable goods report, but this morning’s report for November looks significant.
That’s because durable goods spending is one of the few short-term leading indicators that has continued to improve — until now. Here’s the long-term outlook:
New factory orders for durable goods fell -2.1% in November, while “core” orders for durable goods, excluding aircraft and defense, rose 0.2%. Here’s what the last 12 months look like:
Durable goods orders were essentially unchanged from June and are now below that level. “Core” orders last peaked in August. They seem to be in the process of turning over.
That leaves consumer durables spending and initial jobless claims as the only remaining positive short-term leading indicators.