– by a New Deal Democrat
Initial jobless claims fell -2,000 last week to 190,000, while the 4-week moving average rose 1,750 to 193,000. Continuing claims, one week late, rose 5,000 to 1,655,000. All these excellent numbers remain:
To repeat my meme from the past year, virtually no one has been fired. It is almost impossible to have an economic downturn with this kind of evidence.
In other words, on a year-over-year basis, while past one week and ongoing claims are slightly higher, the all-important 4-week average remains lower:
Unless and until the 4-week average goes up at least 10% year-over-year, this streak isn’t even worthy of a yellow flag. For now, it remains “all systems go” when it comes to employment.