Initial Claims: Revisions rear their ugly head again

Byusadailydose

May 25, 2023 #challenges, #data accuracy, #data inconsistencies, #data interpretation, #data quality, #data reliability, #data revisions, #data revisions impact., #economic analysis, #economic data, #economic forecasting, #Economic Indicators, #economic trends, #implications, #Initial claims, #initial claims revisions", #labor market, #labor statistics, #revisions, #revisions impact, #statistical analysis, #statistical revisions

Initial Claims: Revisions rear their ugly head again

"Unveiling the Impact of Revisions: Initial Claims in the Spotlight"

– by a New Deal Democrat

“Initial Claims Revisions”

Revisions are a constant danger in reporting economic data. This was very evident in this week’s jobless claims report.

Not only was last week’s number revised down by -17,000, but the initial report of 264,000 two weeks ago is now down to 231,000! Big difference.

Anyway, the current report shows a weekly gain of 4,000 to 229,000. The 4-week moving average was unchanged at 231,750. Continuing claims, one week late, fell -5,000 to 1.794 million:

On a year-over-year basis, post-revision claims are currently up just 6.5%, and the more important 4-week average is up just 7.2%. Only ongoing claims continue to show big gains of 25.3%:

Most importantly, after revisions, the 4-week average never crossed the 12.5% threshold and has been below 10% for the past two weeks. If claims are also below 10% on an annual basis, I will remove the yellow flag – revisions to come.

Initial Claims Revisions Source link