Jobless claims: close but no cigar for the red flag
– by a New Deal Democrat Jobless Claims: A Close Call, But Red Flags Persist , Initial claims fell -9,000 to 228,000 last week, and the four-week average fell -9,250…
Industrial and manufacturing production continue to slow
– by a New Deal Democrat Slowing Industrial and Manufacturing Production: A Trend Analysis , I often call industrial production the King of Convergent Indicators because so often the turning…
June retail sales continued to slow, with the important exception of motor vehicles
– by a New Deal Democrat June Retail Sales: A Slowdown Persists, Except for Motor Vehicles , As usual, retail sales are one of my favorite indicators because they tell…
Initial claims are approaching a red flag recession warning
– by a New Deal Democrat Approaching a Red Flag: Initial Claims and the Recession Warning , Initial jobless claims fell -12,000 last week to 237,000. The four-week average fell…
Initial jobless claims: approaching a red flag warning
Red Flag Warning: Initial Jobless Claims Approach Alarming Levels – by a New Deal Democrat Initial claims for jobless benefits rose 12,000 last week to 248,000. The 4-week average fell…
A sharp decline in manufacturing, but another sign of a bottom in housing construction
– by a New Deal Democrat AAs usual, we start the month with reports on production from last month and construction from two months ago. The ISM manufacturing index has…
April’s real personal income and spending report adds to evidence that the cyclical peak may eventually be dated to January
– by a New Deal Democrat “Analyzing April’s Personal Income and Spending Report: Insights on the Cyclical Peak” As I’ve been saying for the past few months, the Personal Income…
Initial Claims: Revisions rear their ugly head again
– by a New Deal Democrat “Initial Claims Revisions” Revisions are a constant danger in reporting economic data. This was very evident in this week’s jobless claims report. Not only…
Financial markets in past fiscal crises; The “gold standard” of employment reports showed a big slowdown in last year’s Q4
– by a New Deal Democrat “financial markets fiscal crises gold standard employment reports slowdown Q4” I have a post up at Seeking Alpha on the behavior of stocks, bonds…
Weekly Indicators for May 8 – 12 at Seeking Alpha
– by a New Deal Democrat My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha. There was a slower deterioration in the matched indicators, but an interesting bounce in several…