The initial claims continue a recent excellent streak

– by a New Deal Democrat

Initial jobless claims continued their recent excellent reading as there were just 192,000 new claims, down -3,000 from the previous week and near their 50+ year low from last March and April. The 4-week average increased by 1,500 to 191,250, still an excellent number. Continuing claims, one week late, fell -37,000 to 1,654,000, still in their slightly elevated range that began in November:

On a year-over-year basis, ongoing claims are slightly higher, while initial claims are slightly lower:

Remember, I don’t believe there is any signal of a recession until initial claims based on a 4-week moving average are at least 10% higher year over year.

The near-total absence of layoffs remains one of the two biggest signals (along with near-record housing starts) against any near-term recession.

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