May JOLTS report: continued slowing trend but still extremely positive
– by a New Deal Democrat Let me start with the statement that has been my touchstone for the JOLTS report for the past year or more: for the past…
Initial jobless claims: approaching a red flag warning
Red Flag Warning: Initial Jobless Claims Approach Alarming Levels – by a New Deal Democrat Initial claims for jobless benefits rose 12,000 last week to 248,000. The 4-week average fell…
Mid-year update: the state of the major monthly matching indicators
– by a New Deal Democrat Mid-Year Update: State of Major Monthly Matching Indicators Revealed , Let’s look at the important monthly matching indicators that the NBER has indicated carry…
Coronavirus Update: Mid 2023
Mid-2023 Coronavirus Update: Latest Developments and Insights – by a New Deal Democrat I haven’t done a COVID status update since March or April. Since we’re in the middle of…
The manufacturing and construction sectors continue to drag the economy down
– by a New Deal Democrat As usual, we start the month with new manufacturing and construction data. The ISM manufacturing index dates all the way back to the 1940s,…
Real incomes continue to set records, while real spending and real total sales fluctuate
– by a New Deal Democrat Real personal spending edged down in May and real total sales continued to decline in April, as of this morning’s report; while real personal…
Initial jobless claims: still at disaster levels, not yet recession warning
– by a New Deal Democrat Initial claims fell -26,000 last week to 239,000, their highest range this spring. The more important 4-week moving average rose 1,500 to 257,500, a…
Held Demand and Sales: An Update
– by a New Deal Democrat No big economic news today. So while we wait to see if initial jobless claims continue to deteriorate tomorrow and what happens to real…
New home sales higher with lower prices in May: Good!
– by a New Deal Democrat Let me start with my usual caveat about new home sales: Although they are the most leading of all housing indicators, they are very…
Home prices rose for a third month in a row, but the Case Shiller index is now negative for the year
– by a New Deal Democrat Seasonally adjusted April home prices, as measured by both the FHFA (red in the chart below) and the Case Shiller (blue) indexes, rose 0.7%…